Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0153 | -0.1321 | 0.9902 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0130 | -0.1212 | 0.9918 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0153 | -0.1321 | 0.9902 |
7 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0019 | -0.0450 | 0.9989 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.005 | -0.038 | -0.004 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0028 | -0.0547 | 0.9984 |
Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0052 | -0.0747 | 0.9970 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0122 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0117 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.038 | +0.004 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0091 | -0.0934 | 0.9943 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0091 | -0.0980 | 0.9944 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0077 | -0.0721 | 0.9951 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0010 | -0.0284 | 0.9994 |
Kalshi | D | +0.022 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |
Kalshi | B | -0.005 |
Manifold | D | +0.022 |
Polymarket | B- | -0.002 |
Kalshi | A | -0.018 |
Manifold | D | +0.017 |
Polymarket | C | +0.002 |