A large language model (LLM) with capabilities comparable to or exceeding those of GPT-4 will be widely available for download by January 1st, 2025, if a panel of AI experts determines it meets the threshold. The question resolves positively if such a model is deemed to have met that threshold. A credible report of a powerful LLM similar in capability to GPT-4 being made publicly available would prompt an expert panel assessment. Resolution criteria include a formal determination by Metaculus' panel that the model's capabilities align with or surpass those of GPT-4. The market will resolve automatically upon resolution of its parent question on Metaculus, unless managed manually.