Will Barbenheimer overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens in domestic box office records?
  • 45
  • 190
  • $152,570
Barbenheimer refers to the combined domestic box office grosses of 'Barbie' (2023) and 'Oppenheimer' (2023). This market resolves to "Yes" if Barbenheimer's domestic box office gross exceeds $936,662,225 by November 16, 2023. If both Barbie and Oppenheimer definitively stop reporting numbers before November 16, 2023, and the total gross is still less than Star Wars, the market may resolve to "No". The combined domestic grosses are calculated from BoxOfficeMojo under the headings "domestic" for each movie. In the event that BoxOfficeMojo ceases to be available or reliable, other websites tracking box office totals can be used.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability6Aug1320273Sep10

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0145
-0.1282
0.9908
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0503
-0.2539
0.9607
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0302
-0.1910
0.9786
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0060
1.0000
Relative Score
D-
+0.026
-0.072
-0.029
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0223
-0.1618
0.9849
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0050
1.0000
Relative Score
A
-0.026
+0.072
+0.029
  • Overall
  • 45
  • 190
  • $152,570
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0090
-0.0950
0.9944
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0363
-0.2078
0.9728
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0212
-0.1538
0.9855
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000

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