| Platform | Markets | Midpoint Brier | Relative Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19 | F | 0.2825 | A- | -0.015 |
| Manifold | 35 | F | 0.4346 | D+ | +0.013 |
| Metaculus | 4 | F | 0.2536 | D | +0.019 |
| Polymarket | 26 | F | 0.2634 | A- | -0.011 |
| Overall | 84 | F | 0.3386 | C+ | -0.0003 |
Calibration plot from all resolved questions, market probability at midpoint versus average resolution value. n=54,254 markets
Source: brier.fyi
Brier scores from all resolved questions, using probability at market midpoint. Lower scores are better. n=54,254 markets
Source: brier.fyi
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.002 |
| Manifold | C | +0.005 |
| Polymarket | B- | -0.003 |
| Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
| Manifold | B | -0.006 |
| Polymarket | C- | +0.007 |
| Kalshi | D+ | +0.010 |
| Manifold | A- | -0.010 |
| Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |
| Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
| Metaculus | D+ | +0.012 |
| Polymarket | A | -0.024 |