Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?
  • 254
  • 5,595
  • $15,931,114
Jake Paul and Mike Tyson are set to face off in a live boxing event on July 20, 2024, at the AT&T Stadium. The outcome of the match is being predicted by fans, with one side betting that Jake Paul will emerge victorious. A win for either fighter will result in the "Yes" outcome, while any other scenario – including a draw, cancellation, or date change after December 31, 2024 – will lead to the "No" outcome. The resolution criteria are straightforward: if Jake Paul is declared the winner, his name will be on top.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNov

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 255
  • 701
  • $13,360

Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson 🥊|📺 Who will win the live Netflix boxing event? | Jake Paul

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3025
-0.7985
0.6332
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2203
-0.6337
0.7490
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1766
-0.5452
0.8096
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1256
-0.4375
0.8766
Relative Score
D+
+0.013
-0.025
-0.018
  • Polymarket
  • 243
  • 4,894
  • $15,917,754

Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1936
-0.5798
0.7863
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1895
-0.5716
0.7919
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1560
-0.5025
0.8373
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.025
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 254
  • 5,595
  • $15,931,114
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2481
-0.6892
0.7098
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2049
-0.6026
0.7705
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1568
-0.5036
0.8360
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1408
-0.4700
0.8570

Similar Questions

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2025 Masters Tournament?
  • 585
  • $23,534,588
Kalshi
A
-0.017
Manifold
D
+0.023
Polymarket
A+
-0.040
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
  • 6,386
  • $2,534,311
Manifold
C-
+0.006
Polymarket
B
-0.006
Will the Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 PGA Championship?
  • 272
  • $8,833,483
Kalshi
A+
-0.058
Manifold
F
+0.050
Polymarket
A
-0.023
Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?
  • 1,545
  • $732,144
Manifold
C-
+0.007
Polymarket
B
-0.007
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?
  • 1,282
  • $100,749
Manifold
C
+0.002
Metaculus
C+
-0.002
Polymarket
C
+0.001
Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas in May 2024?
  • 136
  • $16
Manifold
B-
-0.003
Metaculus
C
+0.003