Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
  • 121
  • 6,386
  • $2,534,311
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26, 2025. If no candidate achieves a majority, a second round of elections will be scheduled between the top two candidates. This market resolves to "Yes" if Alexander Lukashenko wins this election, and to "No" otherwise. A resolution is made based on the official results as reported by the Belarusian Government, specifically the Central Election Commission (CEC), with ambiguity resolved in favor of the CEC's findings. If the result isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2024NovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 109
  • 5
  • $6

Will Lukashenko win the presidential elections in Belarus in 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0270
-0.1794
0.9812
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0270
-0.1794
0.9812
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0021
-0.0471
0.9988
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.038
-0.004
  • Polymarket
  • 46
  • 6,381
  • $2,534,305

Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0005
-0.0233
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0009
-0.0302
0.9995
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0440
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.038
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 121
  • 6,386
  • $2,534,311
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0138
-0.1013
0.9905
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0110
-0.0935
0.9927
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0144
-0.1117
0.9901
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0334
0.9993

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