Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023?
  • 376
  • 2,174
  • $552,012
The prediction that Vladimir Putin will remain President of Russia through 2023 hinges on his continued authority without interruption from a specific date range. One market considers the period from June 12, 2023, to December 31, 2023, with an exact resolution at 11:59 PM ET, while others focus on the broader timeframe from January 1, 2024, forward. The outcome is determined by Scott Alexander's judgment in a contest setting or through credible reporting from reliable sources like the CIA World Factbook. Resolution criteria include direct evidence of Putin's continued presidency and consensus among reputable news outlets. A market resolution will declare Putin either president through 2023 or not.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0400
-0.2231
0.9701
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0088
-0.0986
0.9947
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0159
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0118
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.009
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0408
-0.2257
0.9694
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0125
-0.1188
0.9921
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0252
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0108
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.012
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0030
-0.0566
0.9983
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0040
-0.0656
0.9977
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0222
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0090
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.001
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 2,174
  • $552,012
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0279
-0.1685
0.9793
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0085
-0.0943
0.9948
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0211
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999

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