Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?
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Vladimir Putin has been president of the Russian Federation since 2012 and his term is expected to last until 2024. A recent surge in protests against him in February 2022 highlighted divisions within the country over his leadership. The resolution criteria for this question will be met if Vladimir Putin is still president on February 1, 2023, and controls at least 90% of Russia's territory as of January 2022. If he is impeached or removed from office but maintains de facto control, the answer will be **Yes**. Any uncertainty over his authority due to internal conflicts or disputes about the legitimacy of his presidency will result in an ambiguous outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2022AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2023Feb

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0086
-0.0970
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0177
-0.1429
0.9884
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0243
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0208
0.9998
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.011
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0149
-0.1301
0.9905
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0253
-0.1733
0.9826
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0034
-0.0603
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0373
0.9993
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.011
+0.002
  • Overall
  • 340
  • 1,537
  • $102
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0117
-0.1136
0.9927
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0215
-0.1581
0.9855
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0423
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0290
0.9995

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