Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025?
  • 29
  • 4,036
  • $8,437,647
Yoon Suk Yeol's presidency on January 1, 2025, is contingent upon his holding the office until then, even if suspended due to impeachment. The situation in December 2024 will determine whether Yoon Suk Yeol remains president; a declared martial law, followed by its repeal, does not prevent him from remaining president. If Yoon Suk Yeol ceases to be president between December 2 and December 31, 2024, the outcome is positive. The outcome is positive if he holds the office of President of South Korea on December 31, 2024. A consensus of credible reporting will determine whether this market resolves as "Yes".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability8Dec152229

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 30
  • 121
  • $1,013

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on January 1, 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0038
-0.0633
0.9979
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0162
-0.1363
0.9895
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0197
0.9998
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
-0.003
+0.001
  • Metaculus
  • 25
  • 106

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0085
-0.0970
0.9949
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0199
-0.1522
0.9868
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0260
0.9997
Relative Score
D
+0.020
-0.056
-0.021
  • Polymarket
  • 32
  • 3,809
  • $8,436,634

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0034
-0.0601
0.9981
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0117
-0.1144
0.9927
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0233
0.9997
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.012
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 29
  • 4,036
  • $8,437,647
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0052
-0.0735
0.9969
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0160
-0.1343
0.9897
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1369
-0.4620
0.8623
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0230
0.9997

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