Will the South Korean President leave office before May 1, 2025?
  • 17
  • 3,318
  • $40,540,766
If the President of South Korea leaves office or announces they will leave office before May 1, 2025, then the outcome is in favor. A specific resolution date applies, with a deadline of March 20 to April 30, 2025, for Yoon Suk Yeol's term as president to end. If Yoon Suk Yeol is impeached and his impeachment is not upheld by that time, it does not count towards the outcome. An actual cessation of presidency before the specified date must occur, while an announcement of resignation at a later time will not suffice. The resolution of this outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability21Mar23252729312Apr468

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3721
-0.9416
0.5387
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1621
-0.5153
0.8292
7 Days Before Close
D
0.1024
-0.3857
0.9048
Relative Score
B
-0.006
+0.018
+0.007
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3540
-0.9039
0.5627
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1126
-0.4089
0.8926
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3782
-0.9545
0.5306
Relative Score
C-
+0.006
-0.018
-0.007
  • Overall
  • 17
  • 3,318
  • $40,540,766
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3631
-0.9227
0.5507
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1374
-0.4621
0.8609
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2403
-0.6701
0.7177

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