Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2024?
  • 445
  • 89
  • $81,101
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2024, with the replacement taking effect before January 1st, 2025. This outcome is triggered by General Elections or Conservative Party leadership changes resulting in Sunak losing majority support or confidence. If Sunak becomes incapacitated and another takes over his duties without formal appointment as PM, this outcome does not count. The resolution criteria are official government information and credible reporting.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 445
  • 59
  • $155

Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st January 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0154
-0.1325
0.9901
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0262
-0.1765
0.9819
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0266
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0279
0.9996
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.003
+0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 66
  • 30
  • $80,946

Rishi Sunak out before next UK election? | Inverted

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0002
-0.0156
0.9999
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0026
-0.0525
0.9986
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0080
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.003
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 445
  • 89
  • $81,101
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0078
-0.0740
0.9950
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0144
-0.1145
0.9902
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0209
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0180
0.9998

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