Will Kemi Badenoch be the leader of the UK Conservatives in 2024?
  • 456
  • 510
  • $185,228
Kemi Badenoch's leadership odds are being set ahead of the UK Conservative Party leadership contest. The resolution criteria for these markets varies slightly between platforms, but all agree that Kemi Badenoch must be the next full leader of the party, taking office after Rishi Sunak, to win. In cases where the outcome is uncertain, some markets rely on official government sources or a consensus of credible media sources, while others use a more general consensus approach. Markets will resolve to "No" if the next leader is not announced by December 31, 2024. Any interim or acting leader will not be counted towards the resolution of these markets.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 10
  • $2,287

Will Kemi Badenoch be the leader of the UK Conservatives?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0196
-0.1508
0.9870
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0242
-0.1691
0.9835
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0529
-0.2614
0.9582
Relative Score
C-
+0.007
-0.017
-0.007
  • Manifold
  • 455
  • 243
  • $3,323

Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader? | Kemi Badenoch

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4878
-1.1987
0.3964
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5166
-1.2685
0.3644
30 Days Before Close
F
0.4878
-1.1988
0.3964
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0108
-0.1097
0.9933
Relative Score
A
-0.029
+0.067
+0.036
  • Polymarket
  • 120
  • 267
  • $179,618

Kemi Badenoch next Conservative party leader?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4032
-1.0079
0.4983
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3551
-0.9060
0.5613
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7310
-1.9310
0.1672
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0256
-0.1744
0.9823
Relative Score
D-
+0.030
-0.068
-0.036
  • Overall
  • 456
  • 510
  • $185,228
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3035
-0.7858
0.6273
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2986
-0.7812
0.6364
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6094
-1.5649
0.2818
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0298
-0.1818
0.9780

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