Will Jeremy Corbyn win election to UK parliament in 2024?
  • 499
  • 99
  • $38,541
This market explores whether Jeremy Corbyn will win an election in 2024 by running as a non-Labour candidate. It resolves to a specific outcome if he doesn't run for Labour, or if he runs against the party. The primary resolution source is official information from the UK Government, with credible reporting also considered. If Jeremy Corbyn runs as an independent, this market resolves to the winner. A simple "Yes" or "No" outcome determines whether Corbyn wins election in 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 500
  • 19
  • $588

If Jeremy Corbyn stands as a non-Labour candidate in the next UK general election, who will win in his constituency? | Jeremy Corbyn

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4422
-1.0936
0.4499
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.4098
-1.0222
0.4900
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1843
-0.5609
0.7991
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1629
-0.5169
0.8282
Relative Score
B
-0.004
+0.009
+0.006
  • Polymarket
  • 42
  • 80
  • $37,953

Jeremy Corbyn elected to parliament in UK election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1122
-0.4080
0.8931
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1755
-0.5430
0.8111
30 Days Before Close
D
0.1089
-0.4005
0.8971
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4761
-1.1712
0.4098
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.009
-0.006
  • Overall
  • 499
  • 99
  • $38,541
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2772
-0.7508
0.6715
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2927
-0.7826
0.6505
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1466
-0.4807
0.8481
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3195
-0.8440
0.6190

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