Will Sundar Pichai cease to be CEO of Alphabet before January 2025?
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  • $641,834
If Sundar Pichai's term as CEO ends before January 1, 2025, then the event is considered resolved to Yes. The resolution criteria vary across platforms: some require his removal from Google by December 31, 2024, while others consider any length of time between January 18 and December 31, 2024, sufficient. An announcement of Sundar Pichai's resignation or firing before the end date will immediately resolve the market to Yes. Official information from Google and/or Sundar Pichai, as well as a consensus of credible reporting sources, are primary resolution sources for this event. The market resolves to No if Sundar Pichai remains in his position until at least January 1, 2025.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0052
-0.0749
0.9970
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0202
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
A-
-0.012
+0.056
+0.010
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0256
-0.1744
0.9823
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0293
-0.1876
0.9794
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0087
-0.0980
0.9947
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
D+
+0.012
-0.046
-0.010
  • Polymarket
  • 348
  • 809
  • $567,278

Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0152
-0.1317
0.9902
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0207
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0131
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.003
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 431
  • 893
  • $641,834
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0153
-0.1284
0.9900
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0166
-0.1314
0.9889
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0032
-0.0463
0.9981
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0111
0.9999

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