Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through 2024?
  • 366
  • 1,197
  • $1,422
Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure as Prime Minister of Israel is expected to continue through 2024 based on current developments and resolutions from previous markets. The outcome will be determined by whether he remains in office for the entire year or ceases to hold the position at any point during 2024. Resolution criteria state that if Netanyahu has remained in office throughout 2024, the question resolves as YES on January 1, 2025; otherwise, it resolves NO. The markets reflect varying levels of uncertainty and confidence in his continued leadership, with some users recommending early resolution based on known outcomes. Fine print and additional background information can be found on the respective platforms.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0257
-0.1746
0.9823
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0627
-0.2883
0.9484
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0356
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0209
0.9998
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.044
+0.022
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1585
-0.5078
0.8340
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0950
-0.3686
0.9134
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0372
0.9993
Relative Score
D
+0.017
-0.044
-0.022
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 1,197
  • $1,422
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0921
-0.3412
0.9081
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0789
-0.3285
0.9309
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0435
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0009
-0.0291
0.9995

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