Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0257 | -0.1746 | 0.9823 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0627 | -0.2883 | 0.9484 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0356 | 0.9993 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0209 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | A | -0.017 | +0.044 | +0.022 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1585 | -0.5078 | 0.8340 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0950 | -0.3686 | 0.9134 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0013 | -0.0372 | 0.9993 |
Relative Score | D | +0.017 | -0.044 | -0.022 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0921 | -0.3412 | 0.9081 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0789 | -0.3285 | 0.9309 |
30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0019 | -0.0435 | 0.9990 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0009 | -0.0291 | 0.9995 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |