Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0032 | -0.0580 | 0.9982 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0200 | -0.1524 | 0.9867 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0017 | -0.0423 | 0.9991 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0139 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.001 | +0.006 | +0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C+ | 0.0056 | -0.0780 | 0.9967 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0037 | -0.0628 | 0.9979 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0279 | 0.9996 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0055 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.006 | -0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0044 | -0.0680 | 0.9975 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0118 | -0.1076 | 0.9923 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0351 | 0.9993 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0097 | 0.9999 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |