Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
  • 673
  • 4,024
  • $2,191,363
Presidential elections in Russia are scheduled to take place on March 17, 2024. A key outcome is whether Vladimir Putin remains the head of state until at least December 31, 2024. The resolution criteria depend on the platform: some markets require Putin's continued leadership through a specific date and time (March 25, 2024, to December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET), while others consider only whether he remains in office without interruption until that point. One market resolves based on information from official sources, such as the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, with a consensus of credible reporting also being considered. The outcome of these markets will indicate whether Putin is likely to complete his term as President of Russia through 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2023JulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0032
-0.0580
0.9982
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0200
-0.1524
0.9867
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0423
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0139
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.006
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0037
-0.0628
0.9979
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0279
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.006
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 673
  • 4,024
  • $2,191,363
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0044
-0.0680
0.9975
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0118
-0.1076
0.9923
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0351
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0097
0.9999

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