Alexei Navalny's path to becoming Russia's leader is uncertain, with a large majority of Russians viewing corruption as a major problem. While Navalny has been barred from running for the presidency, opposition leaders have gained power in the past, and his signature issue may be a key factor in future political developments. The question will resolve positively if Navalny assumes either the office of president or prime minister, but only if recognized by the UN Security Council's four permanent members. If Russia ceases to exist or its government changes, the outcome is ambiguous. Navalny's death, whether natural or through revival, will result in a negative resolution unless he is elected and dies before assuming office.