Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026?
  • 15
  • 4,866
  • $8,760,010
This market is focused on predicting whether Yoon Suk Yeol will be arrested before 2026. The resolution criteria require that an arrest take place between December 26, 2024, and January 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, with official information from the arresting government and law enforcement serving as the primary source of resolution. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the criteria are met, indicating that Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested during this period, and to "No" otherwise. The outcome is dependent on an actual arrest occurring before 2026.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2Jan468101214

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1657
-0.5227
0.8244
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2050
-0.6029
0.7704
7 Days Before Close
F
0.3581
-0.9123
0.5572
Relative Score
A+
-0.040
+0.083
+0.054
  • Polymarket
  • 15
  • 4,835
  • $8,759,994

Yoon arrested by January 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4761
-1.1712
0.4098
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2825
-0.7582
0.6613
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4761
-1.1712
0.4098
Relative Score
F
+0.040
-0.083
-0.054
  • Overall
  • 15
  • 4,866
  • $8,760,010
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3209
-0.8469
0.6171
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2437
-0.6805
0.7159
7 Days Before Close
F
0.4171
-1.0418
0.4835

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