Will Trump be in jail before election day?
  • 458
  • 1,955
  • $2,619,293
A prediction that Donald Trump will be in jail at 12:01 AM on Election Day 2024 has been made, with one market requiring him to spend at least 48 consecutive hours in custody. Another market is focused specifically on whether Trump will end up in a US jail or prison during this timeframe, with a resolution tied to actual incarceration rather than just time spent behind bars. One of the markets resolves based solely on official government information, while another considers credible reporting as an additional source of evidence. The resolution criteria for these markets all hinge on Trump's physical presence within a jail or prison between January 5 and November 4, with specific timing requirements applying to one market. Overall, these predictions are focused on the likelihood that Trump will be incarcerated at the specified time and under certain conditions.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2023Jan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0113
-0.1125
0.9930
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0183
-0.1452
0.9880
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0444
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0280
0.9996
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
-0.004
+0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 304
  • 1,909
  • $2,618,980

Trump in jail before election day?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0210
-0.1567
0.9859
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0091
-0.1001
0.9945
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0166
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0055
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.000
+0.004
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 458
  • 1,955
  • $2,619,293
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0162
-0.1346
0.9895
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0137
-0.1226
0.9913
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0305
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0167
0.9998

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