Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
  • 150
  • 1,375
  • $1,115
This market resolves as Yes if any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony before November 5, 2024. The outcome of later appeals or legal proceedings after the initial conviction does not matter. Any type of felony conviction is considered sufficient, regardless of whether it's related to an existing indictment. Conviction does not require sentencing completion, only a finding that Donald Trump committed a felony is necessary for the market to resolve as Yes. This question will resolve upon any US court conviction of Donald Trump on a felony charge.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMay

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 151
  • 453
  • $1,115

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3194
-0.8328
0.6098
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1686
-0.5288
0.8204
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0433
-0.2332
0.9672
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1163
-0.4172
0.8881
Relative Score
A+
-0.047
+0.109
+0.061
  • Metaculus
  • 151
  • 922

Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2484
-0.6900
0.7094
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2743
-0.7418
0.6728
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2241
-0.6412
0.7437
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2330
-0.6591
0.7312
Relative Score
F
+0.047
-0.109
-0.061
  • Overall
  • 150
  • 1,375
  • $1,115
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2839
-0.7614
0.6596
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2215
-0.6353
0.7466
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1337
-0.4372
0.8555
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1747
-0.5381
0.8096

Similar Questions

Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden?
  • 3,946
  • $4,190,365
Kalshi
A
-0.035
Manifold
F
+0.066
Metaculus
A+
-0.046
Polymarket
C+
-0.001
Will Trump be in jail before election day?
  • 1,955
  • $2,619,293
Manifold
C+
-0.000
Polymarket
C
+0.000
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human trafficking in 2024?
  • 1,174
  • $494,163
Manifold
F
+0.091
Polymarket
S
-0.091
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026?
  • 4,866
  • $8,760,010
Manifold
A+
-0.040
Polymarket
F
+0.040
Will Donald Trump be indicted on criminal charges in 2023?
  • 568
  • $4,447
Manifold
A+
-0.047
Metaculus
F
+0.047
Will Donald Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?
  • 188
  • $124
Manifold
A+
-0.052
Metaculus
F
+0.052