Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human trafficking in 2024?
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  • $494,163
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty in a relevant court by the end of 2024? This prediction considers whether Andrew Tate will be found guilty of human trafficking or related charges by a court in any jurisdiction between January 1, and December 31, 2024. The outcome is resolved when a credible source confirms the conviction or acquittal; if there's no conviction by December 31, 2024, it continues to 2025, with Andrew Tate dying before the resolution date or being declared innocent. The resolution criteria for this prediction are tied to the court's official decision on guilt, rather than any social media claims or speculation. The outcome will be "Yes" if a conviction is confirmed and "No" otherwise.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0985
-0.3766
0.9094
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1766
-0.5451
0.8097
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0030
-0.0559
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0030
-0.0559
0.9984
Relative Score
F
+0.091
-0.235
-0.105
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0156
-0.1335
0.9899
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0111
-0.1114
0.9931
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0035
1.0000
Relative Score
S
-0.091
+0.235
+0.105
  • Overall
  • 398
  • 1,174
  • $494,163
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0570
-0.2551
0.9497
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0938
-0.3282
0.9014
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0016
-0.0355
0.9991
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0297
0.9992

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