Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0985 | -0.3766 | 0.9094 |
Time-Weighted Average | D- | 0.1766 | -0.5451 | 0.8097 |
30 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0030 | -0.0559 | 0.9984 |
7 Days Before Close | B+ | 0.0030 | -0.0559 | 0.9984 |
Relative Score | F | +0.091 | -0.235 | -0.105 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0156 | -0.1335 | 0.9899 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0111 | -0.1114 | 0.9931 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0035 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | S | -0.091 | +0.235 | +0.105 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0570 | -0.2551 | 0.9497 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0938 | -0.3282 | 0.9014 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0016 | -0.0355 | 0.9991 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0015 | -0.0297 | 0.9992 |
Manifold | S | -0.091 |
Metaculus | D- | +0.027 |
Polymarket | F | +0.036 |