Will Daniel Penny be found guilty?
  • 50
  • 607
  • $464,598
A trial has concluded with a jury verdict or guilty plea. The outcome determines whether Daniel Penny is found guilty. If Penny's conviction does not stem solely from the death of Jordan Neely and if he has not been convicted of any charges stemming from an unrelated incident by January 1, 2025, the result will be "No". Conversely, if a conviction is reached for this charge before that date or through a guilty plea, regardless of whether it's in connection with another incident, the market resolves to "Yes". The verdict must meet specific criteria, such as an official judgment delivered by the court, although appeals do not affect the resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability27Oct3Nov1017241Dec8

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.5669
-1.3980
0.3118
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2729
-0.7390
0.6747
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7196
-1.8860
0.1760
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0160
-0.1352
0.9897
Relative Score
S
-0.091
+0.211
+0.111
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2373
-0.6678
0.7250
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2694
-0.7319
0.6797
Relative Score
D-
+0.027
-0.055
-0.038
  • Polymarket
  • 7
  • 521
  • $450,229

Daniel Penny found guilty?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1260
-0.4385
0.8761
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1477
-0.4850
0.8483
Relative Score
F
+0.036
-0.086
-0.041
  • Overall
  • 50
  • 607
  • $464,598
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3101
-0.8348
0.6376
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2300
-0.6520
0.7343
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7196
-1.8860
0.1760
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0160
-0.1352
0.9897

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