Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty to murder?
  • 16
  • 1,033
  • $1,062,753
Luigi Mangione, accused of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, faces multiple charges, including first-degree murder and murder as an act of terrorism. The outcome of his case is uncertain, with his lawyer indicating a not guilty plea. Two markets are open, one will resolve YES if Mangione pleads guilty to the murder charges at first appearance or later arraignment pleas that qualify, while the other will resolve NO if he does not plead guilty and subsequent pleas do not count. The markets have different resolution criteria and closing dates, with one market closing on May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Mangione's decision to plead guilty directly impacts the outcome of these markets.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability11Dec13151719212325

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0661
-0.2973
0.9450
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0689
-0.3045
0.9421
Relative Score
C-
+0.005
-0.015
-0.005
  • Polymarket
  • 17
  • 1,014
  • $1,062,662

Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0542
-0.2651
0.9569
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.015
+0.005
  • Overall
  • 16
  • 1,033
  • $1,062,753
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0709
-0.3094
0.9400
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0616
-0.2848
0.9495
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0756
-0.3216
0.9350

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