Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0661 | -0.2973 | 0.9450 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0689 | -0.3045 | 0.9421 |
Relative Score | C- | +0.005 | -0.015 | -0.005 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0756 | -0.3216 | 0.9350 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0542 | -0.2651 | 0.9569 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0756 | -0.3216 | 0.9350 |
Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.015 | +0.005 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0709 | -0.3094 | 0.9400 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0616 | -0.2848 | 0.9495 |
7 Days Before Close | D | 0.0756 | -0.3216 | 0.9350 |
Manifold | S | -0.091 |
Metaculus | D- | +0.027 |
Polymarket | F | +0.036 |