Is John McAfee alive as of 2024?
  • 335
  • 823
  • $585,947
This market resolves to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No". The resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources. In the event that evidence comes to light during this time period, but after the specified deadline, the market will still resolve to "Yes" if the proof is deemed credible. If no conclusive evidence emerges, the market will remain undecided.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 305
  • 13
  • $64

Is John McAfee alive? (From Polymarket, resolves in 2024)

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0012
-0.0354
0.9994
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0013
-0.0374
0.9993
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0340
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0116
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.004
-0.000
  • Polymarket
  • 336
  • 810
  • $585,883

Is John McAfee alive?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0008
-0.0294
0.9996
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0010
-0.0327
0.9994
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0146
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0075
1.0000
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.004
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 335
  • 823
  • $585,947
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0010
-0.0324
0.9995
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0012
-0.0351
0.9994
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0243
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0096
1.0000

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