Will Joe Manchin leave Senate Democratic leadership before November 6th 2024?
  • 376
  • 8
  • $103,642
This market resolves whether Senator Joe Manchin has left the Senate Democratic leadership by 10:00 AM on November 6th, 2024. If a notice on his official website confirms this departure, the market settles to "Yes". Trustworthy users can resolve the market early if they have information on the outcome and are willing to share it with the community. The resolution criteria is in place to ensure the accuracy of user-provided outcomes. Once the original market resolves, its outcome will be automatically applied to this one.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023OctJan2024Apr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Kalshi
  • 377
  • $103,630

Will Joe Manchin leave Senate Democratic leadership? | By November 06, 2024

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2809
-0.7550
0.6635
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.5942
-1.4734
0.2849
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8649
-2.6593
0.0751
7 Days Before Close
F
0.9025
-2.9957
0.0526
Relative Score
F
+0.084
-0.309
-0.076
  • Manifold
  • 367
  • 8
  • $12

[Kalshi] Will Joe Manchin have left Senate Democratic leadership on November 6th 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.6182
-1.5431
0.2623
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1583
-0.5072
0.8343
30 Days Before Close
F
0.6182
-1.5431
0.2623
7 Days Before Close
F
0.7985
-2.2402
0.1183
Relative Score
S
-0.084
+0.309
+0.076
  • Overall
  • 376
  • 8
  • $103,642
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.4496
-1.1491
0.4629
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.3763
-0.9903
0.5596
30 Days Before Close
F
0.7416
-2.1012
0.1687
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8505
-2.6180
0.0854

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