Will Joseph Kony be found before June 2024?
  • 30
  • 33
  • $34,796
On April 27, Russian Mercenaries were reported close to apprehending Joseph Kony, with The Rolling Stone citing this development. A market resolving "Yes" would indicate that Joseph Kony is captured or apprehended before May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, as determined by a consensus of credible sources. The resolution criteria are based on any party confirming the capture or apprehension of Joseph Kony. If no such confirmation is made by a credible source by May 31, 2024, the market resolves to "No". Ultimately, this question revolves around whether credible sources will eventually acknowledge that Joseph Kony has been captured or taken into custody.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability5May121926

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0681
-0.3025
0.9429
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0724
-0.3135
0.9384
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0209
-0.1560
0.9860
Relative Score
F
+0.045
-0.143
-0.045
  • Polymarket
  • 31
  • 23
  • $34,786

Joseph Kony found by May 31?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
Time-Weighted Average
A
0.0018
-0.0428
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0269
0.9996
Relative Score
A+
-0.045
+0.143
+0.045
  • Overall
  • 30
  • 33
  • $34,796
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0351
-0.1743
0.9709
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0371
-0.1781
0.9687
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0108
-0.0914
0.9928

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