Will Russia control Pokrovsk before January 2025?
  • 125
  • 835
  • $1,180,751
This question resolves as yes if the coordinates in Pokrovsk of 48°17\'12.9"N 37°10\'39.8"E are under Russian control according to the Institute for the Study of War map before January 1, 2025. The resolution criteria vary between platforms, with some requiring a specific location (St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk) to be captured by Russia or being shaded red on the ISW map, while others assess overall control of the city based on the same map. If Ukraine or Russia cease to exist, this question will resolve as ambiguous. The primary resolution source is often the ISW map, with DeepStateMap used as an alternative if it ceases to update maps or cease to exist. Resolution can occur before January 1, 2025, either through early resolution by users or when the original event resolves on other platforms.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2024OctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0038
-0.0637
0.9978
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0445
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0418
0.9991
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.006
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0027
-0.0538
0.9985
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0135
-0.1237
0.9914
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0010
-0.0324
0.9995
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0141
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.011
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 65
  • 783
  • $1,180,652

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0081
-0.0943
0.9951
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0114
-0.1129
0.9929
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0619
0.9980
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0171
0.9999
Relative Score
D+
+0.015
-0.073
-0.011
  • Overall
  • 125
  • 835
  • $1,180,751
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0042
-0.0642
0.9975
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0096
-0.1001
0.9941
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0022
-0.0463
0.9988
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0243
0.9996

Similar Questions

  • 4,584
  • $3,514,982

Manifold
B-
-0.003
Metaculus
C
+0.003
Polymarket
D+
+0.013
  • 2,582
  • $2,602,439

Manifold
C+
-0.001
Metaculus
A
-0.021
Polymarket
F
+0.075
  • 1,293
  • $8,009

Manifold
C
+0.005
Metaculus
B
-0.005
  • 506
  • $912

Manifold
C+
-0.001
Metaculus
C
+0.001
  • 1,216
  • $191

Manifold
A+
-0.056
Metaculus
F
+0.056
  • 1,713
  • $272

Manifold
B
-0.006
Metaculus
C-
+0.006