Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
  • 410
  • 1,293
  • $8,009
In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine, aiming to seize a strategic land bridge connecting Crimea and Russia. Ukrainian forces responded with counteroffensive victories, eventually pushing Russian forces back from a significant area. As part of its strategy, Ukraine planned to seize Crimea, targeting the land bridge as the first step towards achieving this goal. The land bridge's removal would cut off Crimea from supplies by land and potentially bring the war closer to termination. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch, severing the land bridge would resolve as Yes if Ukrainian territorial control extended continuously from Kyiv to the Russian border between November 1, 2022, and January 1, 2024.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023AprJulOctJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1521
-0.4943
0.8425
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0695
-0.3059
0.9415
30 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0133
0.9999
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.010
-0.006
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0799
-0.3323
0.9303
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0669
-0.2992
0.9442
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0004
-0.0212
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0106
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.010
+0.006
  • Overall
  • 410
  • 1,293
  • $8,009
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1160
-0.4133
0.8864
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0682
-0.3025
0.9429
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0156
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0120
0.9999

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