Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1521 | -0.4943 | 0.8425 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0695 | -0.3059 | 0.9415 |
30 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0101 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0133 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C | +0.005 | -0.010 | -0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0799 | -0.3323 | 0.9303 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0669 | -0.2992 | 0.9442 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0004 | -0.0212 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0106 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.010 | +0.006 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1160 | -0.4133 | 0.8864 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0682 | -0.3025 | 0.9429 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0156 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0120 | 0.9999 |
Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.001 |
Metaculus | A | -0.021 |
Polymarket | F | +0.075 |