Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before January 2023?
  • 76
  • 1,216
  • $191
Russia has announced or acknowledged that it has invaded Ukraine in at least one Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. This announcement must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. The market resolves positively if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council make this announcement. Areas of Ukraine already occupied by Russia as of December 11, 2021 will not trigger resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability12Dec19262Jan91623306Feb1320

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 151
  • 59
  • $191

Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1380
-0.4645
0.8608
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0322
-0.1979
0.9769
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1380
-0.4645
0.8608
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0767
-0.3243
0.9338
Relative Score
A+
-0.056
+0.117
+0.075
  • Metaculus
  • 76
  • 1,157

Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2590
-0.7112
0.6944
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.2897
-0.7726
0.6512
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2372
-0.6675
0.7252
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.2023
-0.5974
0.7742
Relative Score
F
+0.056
-0.117
-0.075
  • Overall
  • 76
  • 1,216
  • $191
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1985
-0.5878
0.7776
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1609
-0.4853
0.8140
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1876
-0.5660
0.7930
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1395
-0.4608
0.8540

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