Will there be a Russo-Ukraine ceasefire before January 2025?
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This question considers whether a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement will occur in the Russo-Ukraine conflict by December 31, 2024. A bilateral cease-fire is one that applies to the majorities of combatants on both sides, and must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed territory. The conflict has been ongoing since Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, with recent developments indicating a continued active conflict. For this question to resolve as Yes, there must be an official announcement by both Ukraine and Russia of an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement that goes into effect by the specified deadline. If no such agreement is reached and is declared through official channels by both sides before January 1, 2025, the question will resolve as No.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0039
-0.0646
0.9978
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0043
-0.0674
0.9976
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0344
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0264
0.9996
Relative Score
B-
-0.003
+0.015
+0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0091
-0.1002
0.9945
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0080
-0.0936
0.9952
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0360
0.9993
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0290
0.9996
Relative Score
C
+0.003
-0.013
-0.003
  • Polymarket
  • 107
  • 3,320
  • $3,514,408

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0182
-0.1450
0.9880
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0110
-0.1111
0.9932
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0434
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0177
0.9998
Relative Score
D+
+0.013
-0.071
-0.009
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 4,584
  • $3,514,982
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0104
-0.1033
0.9934
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0078
-0.0907
0.9953
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0379
0.9992
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0244
0.9997

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