Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0039 | -0.0646 | 0.9978 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0043 | -0.0674 | 0.9976 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0011 | -0.0344 | 0.9994 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0264 | 0.9996 |
Relative Score | B- | -0.003 | +0.015 | +0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0091 | -0.1002 | 0.9945 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0080 | -0.0936 | 0.9952 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0012 | -0.0360 | 0.9993 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0290 | 0.9996 |
Relative Score | C | +0.003 | -0.013 | -0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0182 | -0.1450 | 0.9880 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0110 | -0.1111 | 0.9932 |
30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0018 | -0.0434 | 0.9990 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0177 | 0.9998 |
Relative Score | D+ | +0.013 | -0.071 | -0.009 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0104 | -0.1033 | 0.9934 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0078 | -0.0907 | 0.9953 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0014 | -0.0379 | 0.9992 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0244 | 0.9997 |
Manifold | C | +0.004 |
Metaculus | B- | -0.004 |
Polymarket | C | +0.000 |