Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
  • 290
  • 4,727
  • $4,031,809
Multiple options can resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas before a certain date, with fighting stopping for at least one day. A ceasefire must be reported by reputable sources, confirmed by both parties, and verified by official sources or open-source intelligence. If the war ends before that date, hostilities will have ended, resulting in a YES resolution. Any unratified, verbal, or informal agreement is not considered an official ceasefire. The market's resolution will depend on official government announcements from Israel and Hamas, or credible media reports.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2025
-0.5978
0.7740
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1844
-0.5612
0.7989
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0124
-0.1181
0.9922
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0092
-0.1006
0.9944
Relative Score
A
-0.036
+0.090
+0.043
  • Polymarket
  • 147
  • 4,504
  • $3,950,959

Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0720
-0.3124
0.9389
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1114
-0.4061
0.8941
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1534
-0.4970
0.8408
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0056
-0.0780
0.9967
Relative Score
F
+0.036
-0.090
-0.043
  • Overall
  • 290
  • 4,727
  • $4,031,809
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1373
-0.4551
0.8564
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1479
-0.4836
0.8465
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0829
-0.3076
0.9165
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0074
-0.0893
0.9956

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