Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?
  • 86
  • 1,291
  • $1,989
The Gaza Strip, a small territory on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, has been under Hamas's de facto control since 2007. Following a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, international attention turned to the situation in Gaza. The Israeli government launched Operation Iron Swords, conducting airstrikes and calling up reservists in response to the attack. The number of rockets launched by Hamas during this time was unprecedented, with an estimated 2,200 projectiles fired at Israel. If credible reports indicate that Hamas no longer controls the majority of the Gaza Strip's land area between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2023, then control is deemed lost, resolving the market to "Yes".

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability15Oct22295Nov1219263Dec10172431

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2323
-0.6577
0.7322
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0957
-0.3700
0.9127
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0220
-0.1606
0.9852
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0029
-0.0558
0.9984
Relative Score
D+
+0.010
-0.022
-0.013
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2746
-0.7424
0.6724
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0871
-0.3496
0.9225
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0128
-0.1201
0.9920
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0669
0.9976
Relative Score
A-
-0.010
+0.022
+0.013
  • Overall
  • 86
  • 1,291
  • $1,989
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.2534
-0.7000
0.7023
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0914
-0.3598
0.9176
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0174
-0.1403
0.9886
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0036
-0.0613
0.9980

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