Will Israel invade Syria before January 2025?
  • 87
  • 3,357
  • $16,819,809
Several platforms have created markets to gauge Israel's potential invasion of Syria before January 2025. Some propose a full ground incursion with over 1000 soldiers as the threshold for an "invasion", while others focus on specific military actions in targeted areas, such as Mount Hermon or the Golan Heights. The resolution criteria vary, with some markets relying on official confirmation from key players like Syria and the UN, while others accept a consensus of credible reporting. Markets differ in their timeframes, with some focusing on 2024 specifically, while others span up to January 2025. Ultimately, these markets seek to capture Israel's actions that would be deemed an "invasion" by those tracking regional tensions.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability15Sep22296Oct1320273Nov1017241Dec8

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 61
  • 49
  • $249

Will Israel launch a full ground incursion into Syria before 2025?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.9614
-3.9384
0.0199
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.9128
-3.1105
0.0466
30 Days Before Close
F
0.9614
-3.9384
0.0199
7 Days Before Close
F
0.9588
-3.8716
0.0213
Relative Score
F
+0.058
-0.574
-0.037
  • Polymarket
  • 98
  • 3,308
  • $16,819,560

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.7773
-2.1342
0.1330
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.7058
-1.8332
0.1870
30 Days Before Close
F
0.8418
-2.4950
0.0896
7 Days Before Close
F
0.8490
-2.5436
0.0850
Relative Score
A+
-0.058
+0.574
+0.037
  • Overall
  • 87
  • 3,357
  • $16,819,809
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.8694
-3.0363
0.0764
Time-Weighted Average
F
0.8093
-2.4719
0.1168
30 Days Before Close
F
0.9016
-3.2167
0.0547
7 Days Before Close
F
0.9039
-3.2076
0.0531

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