Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran in 2023?
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  • 250
  • $83
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, launching approximately 2,200 rockets in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007. The number of rockets was an order of magnitude larger than previous attacks during the 2014 and 2021 crises. Iran appears to have been involved in planning the attack, with Iranian security officials reportedly helping plan the assault at a meeting in Beirut. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 9, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Israel has carried out an attack on Iran with damage occurring within its borders, killing at least five Iranians, and that Israel either explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack or performed it in an unobscured manner.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability15Oct22295Nov1219263Dec10172431

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0046
-0.0703
0.9974
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0058
-0.0793
0.9966
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0455
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0022
-0.0478
0.9988
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.002
-0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C+
0.0058
-0.0793
0.9966
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0055
-0.0774
0.9968
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0447
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0270
0.9996
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.002
+0.000
  • Overall
  • 84
  • 250
  • $83
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0052
-0.0748
0.9970
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0057
-0.0783
0.9967
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0019
-0.0451
0.9989
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0014
-0.0374
0.9992

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