Will Israel be at war with Hezbollah before January 2024?
  • 144
  • 1,201
  • $4,852
If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES. Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action. A conflict involving 400 or more deaths between Israel's military forces or law enforcement personnel and Hezbollah's military forces or affiliated groups will resolve as YES. Credible sources must report the deaths, with both combatant and non-combatant fatalities counted towards the total, although it may take Metaculus additional confirmation if initial reports are unclear. The question will also resolve as Ambiguous if estimates differ substantially.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilitySep2023OctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0847
-0.3440
0.9251
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0343
-0.2047
0.9752
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0053
-0.0759
0.9969
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0013
-0.0374
0.9993
Relative Score
A
-0.038
+0.105
+0.043
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1469
-0.4834
0.8493
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1138
-0.4116
0.8911
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1120
-0.4075
0.8933
7 Days Before Close
C+
0.0071
-0.0880
0.9958
Relative Score
F
+0.038
-0.105
-0.043
  • Overall
  • 144
  • 1,201
  • $4,852
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1158
-0.4137
0.8872
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0740
-0.3081
0.9331
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0587
-0.2417
0.9451
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0042
-0.0627
0.9975

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