Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0086 | -0.0976 | 0.9948 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0086 | -0.0976 | 0.9948 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0086 | -0.0976 | 0.9948 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0086 | -0.0976 | 0.9948 |
Relative Score | C | +0.004 | -0.040 | -0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0087 | -0.0981 | 0.9947 |
Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0053 | -0.0757 | 0.9969 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0179 | 0.9998 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0135 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | B | -0.004 | +0.040 | +0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0087 | -0.0979 | 0.9948 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0070 | -0.0866 | 0.9959 |
30 Days Before Close | B | 0.0045 | -0.0578 | 0.9973 |
7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0044 | -0.0555 | 0.9973 |
Manifold | B- | -0.002 |
Metaculus | C+ | -0.000 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |
Manifold | B | -0.004 |
Metaculus | C | +0.005 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |