Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
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  • 299
  • $7
The potential for a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024 has been elevated by increasing tensions in their relations, including trade wars and military build-ups. A direct fatality resulting from gunfire or explosives would be considered a resolution. The question resolves if at any time between June 1, 2021, and January 1, 2024, credible media reports indicate forces from both sides have engaged in a deadly conflict involving the use of guns or explosives, with at least one death occurring as a result. The scope of the clash is not limited to specific locations, and the type of weapon used (less than lethal) does not factor into the resolution criteria. A member of either side's armed forces causing a civilian fatality would not be considered sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2021OctJan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0086
-0.0976
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0086
-0.0976
0.9948
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0086
-0.0976
0.9948
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0086
-0.0976
0.9948
Relative Score
C
+0.004
-0.040
-0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0087
-0.0981
0.9947
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0053
-0.0757
0.9969
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0179
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0135
0.9999
Relative Score
B
-0.004
+0.040
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 917
  • 299
  • $7
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0087
-0.0979
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0070
-0.0866
0.9959
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0045
-0.0578
0.9973
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0044
-0.0555
0.9973

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