Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
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  • $206
Eritrea and Ethiopia have a history of conflict dating back to 1993 when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia following a lengthy war for independence. The two nations have been at odds since then, with a major war in 1998 and ongoing conflict until their 2018 peace declaration. In recent developments, Ethiopian President Abiy has expressed concerns about a potential renewal of conflict, citing the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. Credible sources will need to report at least 100 deaths among overtly flagged members of both militaries caused by confrontation with each other's military in calendar year 2024 to resolve this question as Yes, including accidents such as vehicle collisions. Any credible reports from trusted sources, regardless of the time or location of the deaths, will count towards resolving the question if they meet the specified criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0079
-0.0932
0.9953
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0089
-0.0992
0.9946
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0051
-0.0739
0.9971
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0012
-0.0354
0.9994
Relative Score
C+
-0.001
+0.005
+0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0087
-0.0978
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0107
-0.1090
0.9934
30 Days Before Close
B+
0.0025
-0.0511
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0017
-0.0427
0.9991
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.005
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 366
  • 477
  • $206
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0083
-0.0955
0.9950
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0098
-0.1041
0.9940
30 Days Before Close
B
0.0038
-0.0625
0.9978
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0390
0.9992

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