Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0087 | -0.0978 | 0.9948 |
Time-Weighted Average | C | 0.0120 | -0.1158 | 0.9925 |
30 Days Before Close | C | 0.0087 | -0.0978 | 0.9948 |
7 Days Before Close | C | 0.0087 | -0.0978 | 0.9948 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.011 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C- | 0.0155 | -0.1332 | 0.9900 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0283 | -0.1842 | 0.9801 |
30 Days Before Close | A | 0.0011 | -0.0333 | 0.9994 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0245 | 0.9997 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.011 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | C | 0.0121 | -0.1155 | 0.9924 |
Time-Weighted Average | C- | 0.0201 | -0.1500 | 0.9863 |
30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0049 | -0.0655 | 0.9971 |
7 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0046 | -0.0612 | 0.9972 |
Manifold | B- | -0.003 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | D+ | +0.013 |