Will there be an armed conflict in the Balkans before 2025?
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Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? This question aims to ascertain the probability of an armed conflict of at least medium magnitude in the region. The resolution criteria require at least 3 credible news outlets or governmental organizations (BBC, Reuters, the UN, EU, NATO, etc.) to report combatant casualties exceeding 500 before January 1, 2025, with multiple conflicts being considered if their sum exceeds 500. The Balkan region includes all countries south of the Danube-Sava rivers, excluding Turkey and Romania. If an armed conflict occurs, its casualty count will be included in determining the resolution criteria.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2022Jan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOctJan2025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0087
-0.0978
0.9948
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0120
-0.1158
0.9925
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0087
-0.0978
0.9948
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0087
-0.0978
0.9948
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.011
-0.001
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C-
0.0155
-0.1332
0.9900
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0283
-0.1842
0.9801
30 Days Before Close
A
0.0011
-0.0333
0.9994
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0245
0.9997
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.011
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 873
  • 82
  • $10
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0121
-0.1155
0.9924
Time-Weighted Average
C-
0.0201
-0.1500
0.9863
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0049
-0.0655
0.9971
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0046
-0.0612
0.9972

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