Will Israel be at war with Hezbollah before January 2025?
  • 242
  • 545
  • $7,604
Resolves YES if formal declaration of war on Lebanon or Hezbollah, announcement or commencement of ground operations into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah, or significant escalation in rocket and artillery fire exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah occur before January 1, 2025. The conflict began in October 2023 following the Hamas attack on Israel and has since escalated with both sides exchanging fire. Death tolls from 1000 or more are counted towards the resolution, including both combatant and non-combatant fatalities. The threshold of 1000 deaths will be met if credible sources report this number between October 12, 2023, and January 1, 2025. The question will resolve as YES if there is clear evidence of a significant escalation or outbreak of hostilities before the specified date.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityMar2024AprMayJunJulAugSepOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1547
-0.4997
0.8391
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1986
-0.5899
0.7794
30 Days Before Close
F
0.3820
-0.9624
0.5258
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1521
-0.4943
0.8425
Relative Score
F
+0.090
-0.210
-0.111
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1183
-0.4216
0.8856
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1672
-0.5257
0.8224
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0367
-0.2126
0.9731
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0463
-0.2423
0.9644
Relative Score
S
-0.090
+0.210
+0.111
  • Overall
  • 242
  • 545
  • $7,604
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1365
-0.4606
0.8624
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1829
-0.5578
0.8009
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2093
-0.5875
0.7494
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0992
-0.3683
0.9035

Similar Questions

  • 4,584
  • $3,514,982

Manifold
B-
-0.003
Metaculus
C
+0.003
Polymarket
D+
+0.013
  • 4,727
  • $4,031,809

Manifold
A
-0.036
Polymarket
F
+0.036
  • 3,357
  • $16,819,809

Manifold
F
+0.058
Polymarket
A+
-0.058
  • 1,201
  • $4,852

Manifold
A
-0.038
Metaculus
F
+0.038
  • 477
  • $206

Manifold
C+
-0.001
Metaculus
C
+0.001
  • 250
  • $83

Manifold
C
+0.001
Metaculus
C+
-0.001