This market is open to gauge whether there will be conclusive evidence supporting a lab leak theory behind COVID-19. The resolution criteria include definitive statements from top US officials, as well as widespread acceptance by the scientific community and global leaders. For the YES outcome, a clear consensus among at least 95% of scientists and over 80% of countries' political leadership is required. In contrast, if any widely accepted explanation for zoonotic origin emerges or if no conclusive evidence presents itself by December 2024, this market resolves as NO. The market creator seeks to address the limitations of previous COVID-19 prediction markets, which had lengthy resolution thresholds and inactive creators.