Will Donald Trump be indicted on criminal charges in 2023?
  • 107
  • 568
  • $4,447
This question was proposed by multiple platforms to determine whether Donald Trump would face criminal charges in 2023. The resolution criteria varied between platforms, but ultimately, it was settled that Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges before 2026 and possibly jailed or incarcerated before 2030. Several contests and prediction platforms weighed in on the subject, offering their own questions and conditions for resolving the outcome. Ultimately, Scott Alexander's judgment resolved the question, providing clarity to those who participated. The outcome marked a significant development in Trump's legal proceedings, bringing closure to some and fueling ongoing debates about his legacy.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2023FebMarApr

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 108
  • 389
  • $4,447

23. Will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.1065
-0.3951
0.8999
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0769
-0.3247
0.9337
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1296
-0.4463
0.8716
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0439
-0.2353
0.9666
Relative Score
A+
-0.047
+0.101
+0.061
  • Metaculus
  • 100
  • 179

In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2066
-0.6062
0.7682
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1755
-0.5430
0.8111
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2215
-0.6361
0.7473
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0136
-0.1239
0.9914
Relative Score
F
+0.047
-0.101
-0.061
  • Overall
  • 107
  • 568
  • $4,447
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1566
-0.5006
0.8341
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1262
-0.4338
0.8724
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1756
-0.5412
0.8095
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0288
-0.1796
0.9790

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