Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2023?
  • 207
  • 1,231
  • $7,473
A market has been created to predict whether Lex Fridman will conduct an exclusive in-depth interview with Vladimir Putin by December 31st. The resolution criteria for a successful outcome would involve the interview being made publicly available on platforms where Lex Fridman regularly releases his podcast episodes or his verified social media accounts by 11:59 PM Eastern Time. If no such interview takes place, is not verifiable, or fails to meet this deadline, the market will conclude that Putin has not been interviewed. Some participants have taken a more lenient stance, suggesting that even if the interview is conducted but not publicly available before December 31st, it would still be considered a success.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023AugSepOctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0040
-0.0651
0.9977
Time-Weighted Average
B-
0.0047
-0.0712
0.9973
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0008
-0.0295
0.9996
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0000
-0.0065
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.000
-0.003
+0.000
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A+
0.0006
-0.0238
0.9997
Time-Weighted Average
A+
0.0008
-0.0291
0.9996
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0161
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.000
+0.003
-0.000
  • Overall
  • 207
  • 1,231
  • $7,473
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0023
-0.0444
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0028
-0.0502
0.9984
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0006
-0.0228
0.9997
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0001
-0.0108
0.9999

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