Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B | 0.0040 | -0.0651 | 0.9977 |
Time-Weighted Average | B- | 0.0047 | -0.0712 | 0.9973 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0295 | 0.9996 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0000 | -0.0065 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | C | +0.000 | -0.003 | +0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0238 | 0.9997 |
Time-Weighted Average | A+ | 0.0008 | -0.0291 | 0.9996 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0003 | -0.0161 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.000 | +0.003 | -0.000 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0023 | -0.0444 | 0.9987 |
Time-Weighted Average | B+ | 0.0028 | -0.0502 | 0.9984 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0006 | -0.0228 | 0.9997 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0001 | -0.0108 | 0.9999 |
Manifold | C+ | -0.002 |
Metaculus | C | +0.003 |
Polymarket | C+ | -0.000 |