Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | A | 0.0012 | -0.0356 | 0.9993 |
Time-Weighted Average | C+ | 0.0058 | -0.0794 | 0.9966 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0131 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | S | 0.0001 | -0.0096 | 1.0000 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | -0.004 | -0.002 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B- | 0.0049 | -0.0729 | 0.9972 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0034 | -0.0604 | 0.9981 |
30 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0153 | 0.9999 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0002 | -0.0151 | 0.9999 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | +0.007 | +0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0025 | -0.0513 | 0.9986 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0037 | -0.0630 | 0.9979 |
30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0050 | -0.0736 | 0.9971 |
7 Days Before Close | A | 0.0018 | -0.0429 | 0.9990 |
Relative Score | C | +0.001 | -0.012 | -0.001 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | B+ | 0.0029 | -0.0533 | 0.9984 |
Time-Weighted Average | B | 0.0043 | -0.0676 | 0.9975 |
30 Days Before Close | A- | 0.0018 | -0.0340 | 0.9990 |
7 Days Before Close | A+ | 0.0007 | -0.0225 | 0.9996 |
Manifold | B+ | -0.010 |
Metaculus | F | +0.054 |
Polymarket | A | -0.017 |