Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have a physical fight in 2023?
  • 193
  • 1,282
  • $100,749
Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have been engaged in a competitive history with each other, sparking speculation about a potential cage match. The two billionaires have exchanged messages on social media, including a tweet from Musk stating he's "up for a cage fight" with Zuckerberg, who responded by posting a screenshot of the tweet. A cage match between the two has been discussed in various news outlets, with some predicting when and if it will occur. The market resolves to yes if a publicly-evident cage match directly between Musk and Zuckerberg occurs before January 1, 2024, or if a fight occurs before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used as the primary resolution source for the market's outcome.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJul2023AugSepOctNovDecJan2024

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0012
-0.0356
0.9993
Time-Weighted Average
C+
0.0058
-0.0794
0.9966
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0131
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0096
1.0000
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.004
-0.002
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B-
0.0049
-0.0729
0.9972
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0034
-0.0604
0.9981
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0153
0.9999
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0151
0.9999
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.007
+0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 147
  • 101
  • $97,266

Will Musk fight Zuck in 2023?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0025
-0.0513
0.9986
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0037
-0.0630
0.9979
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0050
-0.0736
0.9971
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0018
-0.0429
0.9990
Relative Score
C
+0.001
-0.012
-0.001
  • Overall
  • 193
  • 1,282
  • $100,749
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0029
-0.0533
0.9984
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0043
-0.0676
0.9975
30 Days Before Close
A-
0.0018
-0.0340
0.9990
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0007
-0.0225
0.9996

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