Will Biden and Trump debate before the 2024 US presidential election?
  • 182
  • 1,483
  • $587,605
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? This question resolves as Yes if both candidates participate in a live debate for presidential candidates by November 5, 2024, including a virtual debate. A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to one another in real time; responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityFeb2024MarAprMayJunJul

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Manifold
  • 179
  • 475
  • $1,598

Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1208
-0.4270
0.8826
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0591
-0.2786
0.9521
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0121
-0.1165
0.9924
7 Days Before Close
B-
0.0054
-0.0762
0.9969
Relative Score
B+
-0.010
+0.021
+0.012
  • Metaculus
  • 183
  • 717

Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1682
-0.5278
0.8211
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1048
-0.3911
0.9020
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0105
-0.1083
0.9935
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0040
-0.0655
0.9977
Relative Score
F
+0.054
-0.122
-0.066
  • Polymarket
  • 155
  • 291
  • $586,007

Trump and Biden debate before Election?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0650
-0.2944
0.9461
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0408
-0.2256
0.9694
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0072
-0.0888
0.9957
7 Days Before Close
A-
0.0020
-0.0460
0.9989
Relative Score
A
-0.017
+0.046
+0.018
  • Overall
  • 182
  • 1,483
  • $587,605
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1180
-0.4164
0.8833
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0682
-0.2984
0.9412
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0100
-0.1046
0.9939
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0038
-0.0626
0.9978

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