Will either candidate to the 2024 US presidential election concede in November?
  • 5
  • 267
  • $135,888
This market resolves to "Yes" if either the Republican or Democratic presidential candidate formally concedes the 2024 US presidential election by November 30, 11:59 PM ET, through an unambiguous public statement acknowledging their loss. A concession is made when a candidate publicly acknowledges they will not be the next President, or that their opponent has won. Private conversations and claims of election rigging do not qualify as concessions. Only public statements from the conceding candidate are considered. The market resolves to "No" if no such concession is made by November 30th.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability3Nov4567

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1432
-0.4756
0.8541
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0658
-0.2965
0.9453
Relative Score
C
+0.002
+0.001
-0.003
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1332
-0.4541
0.8670
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0946
-0.3674
0.9139
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
-0.001
+0.003
  • Overall
  • 5
  • 267
  • $135,888
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1382
-0.4648
0.8605
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.0802
-0.3320
0.9296

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