Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1432 | -0.4756 | 0.8541 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0658 | -0.2965 | 0.9453 |
Relative Score | C | +0.002 | +0.001 | -0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1332 | -0.4541 | 0.8670 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0946 | -0.3674 | 0.9139 |
Relative Score | C+ | -0.002 | -0.001 | +0.003 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D- | 0.1382 | -0.4648 | 0.8605 |
Time-Weighted Average | D | 0.0802 | -0.3320 | 0.9296 |
Manifold | D+ | +0.012 |
Metaculus | A- | -0.011 |
Polymarket | C | +0.001 |
Manifold | A | -0.017 |
Metaculus | F | +0.069 |
Polymarket | C | +0.003 |