Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?
  • 15
  • 894
  • $3,164,380
A live, publicly-broadcast presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is scheduled to take place on September 10, 2024. The debate must start with both candidates participating live and simultaneously. If either candidate does not participate in the debate due to illness or other unforeseen circumstances, it will not count as a debate for this question. A pre-recorded video statement or responses will not be considered participation in a live debate.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability27Aug29312Sep46810

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

  • Metaculus
  • 14
  • 97

Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
A
0.0014
-0.0376
0.9993
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0025
-0.0518
0.9986
7 Days Before Close
A
0.0015
-0.0393
0.9992
Relative Score
C
+0.002
-0.006
-0.001
  • Polymarket
  • 16
  • 797
  • $3,164,380

Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10?

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0033
-0.0592
0.9981
Time-Weighted Average
B
0.0031
-0.0575
0.9983
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0033
-0.0592
0.9981
Relative Score
C+
-0.002
+0.006
+0.001
  • Overall
  • 15
  • 894
  • $3,164,380
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B+
0.0023
-0.0484
0.9987
Time-Weighted Average
B+
0.0028
-0.0547
0.9984
7 Days Before Close
B+
0.0024
-0.0493
0.9987

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