Will the 2024 US Presidential Election be determined by the US Supreme Court?
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  • 132
  • $175
In the 2024 US Presidential Election, the outcome will be decided by the Electoral Vote and certified by the new Congress. The election results were previously determined by a dispute involving the Supreme Court in the 2000 US presidential election. For the 2024 election, there is uncertainty about whether the Supreme Court will hear and decide a case that could overturn the election results. A positive resolution would require at least three credible media reports indicating that deciding the case differently would influence the outcome of the election. The case must be related to the 2024 election and result in different individuals being made US president.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ Probability2022202320242025

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
B
0.0034
-0.0604
0.9981
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0080
-0.0936
0.9952
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0216
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
S
0.0001
-0.0101
0.9999
Relative Score
C-
+0.008
-0.031
-0.007
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0263
-0.1769
0.9818
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0148
-0.1299
0.9905
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0215
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0003
-0.0174
0.9998
Relative Score
B
-0.008
+0.031
+0.007
  • Overall
  • 1,245
  • 132
  • $175
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
C
0.0149
-0.1186
0.9899
Time-Weighted Average
C
0.0114
-0.1118
0.9929
30 Days Before Close
A+
0.0005
-0.0216
0.9998
7 Days Before Close
A+
0.0002
-0.0137
0.9999

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