Will a state override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college for the 2024 US presidential election?
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  • 105
  • $126
A US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college in 2024. This outcome requires a legislator, judge, or governor in at least one state successfully overriding the election results after voting day. The resolution criteria include states that switch from proportional to winner-takes-all allocation of electors before voting day not being included. States following the National Popular Vote compact before voting day are excluded if the pact is activated for them before voting day, but included if it's activated after. A state's certification of election results is resolved based on whether they submit results different from the projected winner according to at least six major news organizations by a specific deadline.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityOct2021Jan2022AprJulOctJan2023AprJulOctJan2024AprJulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0336
-0.2024
0.9758
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0367
-0.2126
0.9731
30 Days Before Close
D+
0.0385
-0.2183
0.9715
7 Days Before Close
D+
0.0385
-0.2183
0.9715
Relative Score
C
+0.005
-0.020
-0.004
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D
0.0506
-0.2549
0.9603
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0305
-0.1921
0.9783
30 Days Before Close
B-
0.0045
-0.0695
0.9974
7 Days Before Close
B
0.0034
-0.0599
0.9981
Relative Score
B
-0.005
+0.020
+0.004
  • Overall
  • 1,185
  • 105
  • $126
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D+
0.0421
-0.2286
0.9681
Time-Weighted Average
D+
0.0336
-0.2023
0.9757
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0215
-0.1439
0.9845
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0209
-0.1391
0.9848

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