Source: brier.fyi
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0336 | -0.2024 | 0.9758 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0367 | -0.2126 | 0.9731 |
30 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0385 | -0.2183 | 0.9715 |
7 Days Before Close | D+ | 0.0385 | -0.2183 | 0.9715 |
Relative Score | C | +0.005 | -0.020 | -0.004 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D | 0.0506 | -0.2549 | 0.9603 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0305 | -0.1921 | 0.9783 |
30 Days Before Close | B- | 0.0045 | -0.0695 | 0.9974 |
7 Days Before Close | B | 0.0034 | -0.0599 | 0.9981 |
Relative Score | B | -0.005 | +0.020 | +0.004 |
Criterion | Grade | Brier/Quadratic | Logarithmic | Spherical |
---|---|---|---|---|
At Market Midpoint | D+ | 0.0421 | -0.2286 | 0.9681 |
Time-Weighted Average | D+ | 0.0336 | -0.2023 | 0.9757 |
30 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0215 | -0.1439 | 0.9845 |
7 Days Before Close | C- | 0.0209 | -0.1391 | 0.9848 |
Kalshi | A | -0.027 |
Manifold | F | +0.039 |
Metaculus | A | -0.026 |
Polymarket | A | -0.017 |
Kalshi | C+ | -0.001 |
Manifold | F | +0.040 |
Polymarket | A | -0.037 |
Kalshi | B | -0.008 |
Manifold | D | +0.016 |
Polymarket | A- | -0.014 |