Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
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  • 715
  • $618
US faithless electors in 2024 will be voting for someone else if any member of the Electoral College votes for a candidate other than the one they pledged to, according to reports from trustworthy sources. In the past, this has resulted in some electoral votes not being counted due to a pledge being broken. In the 2016 election, there were ten faithless electors who did vote for someone else; seven of those weren't invalidated, which meant their candidate received an extra vote. The outcome will be classified as 'Yes' if any elector breaks their pledged promise without getting their vote invalided.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityApr2024JulOct

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2128
-0.6186
0.7596
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1927
-0.5780
0.7875
30 Days Before Close
D
0.0556
-0.2690
0.9555
7 Days Before Close
D
0.0907
-0.3583
0.9184
Relative Score
A-
-0.013
+0.028
+0.018
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2047
-0.6022
0.7709
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2264
-0.6459
0.7404
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.2051
-0.6031
0.7703
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1786
-0.5493
0.8069
Relative Score
D+
+0.013
-0.028
-0.018
  • Overall
  • 352
  • 715
  • $618
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2087
-0.6104
0.7653
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.2096
-0.6120
0.7640
30 Days Before Close
D-
0.1304
-0.4360
0.8629
7 Days Before Close
D-
0.1346
-0.4538
0.8627

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