Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before January 2023?
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  • $178
The question revolves around the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the US Supreme Court between December 1, 2021, and January 1, 2023. The resolution criteria are met if the court either upholds a state or federal law banning elective abortions before the date of fetal viability, which is approximately 24 weeks of pregnancy, or overturns a previous ruling that permits abortion access. This decision may be rendered in cases like Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization or the Texas Heartbeat Act. A majority of the justices appointed by Republican presidents are anticipated to influence this outcome, with five of nine justices previously being appointed by such presidents. The question is resolved positively if the court takes any action that results in a ban on elective abortions before 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Probability History

0102030405060708090100↑ ProbabilityJan2022FebMarAprMayJun

Source: brier.fyi

Detailed Scores

Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
F
0.3214
-0.8369
0.6070
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1347
-0.4573
0.8651
30 Days Before Close
C+
0.0063
-0.0827
0.9963
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0198
-0.1519
0.9868
Relative Score
F
+0.043
-0.089
-0.056
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.1367
-0.4617
0.8625
Time-Weighted Average
D
0.1066
-0.3954
0.8998
30 Days Before Close
C-
0.0187
-0.1469
0.9877
7 Days Before Close
C
0.0139
-0.1255
0.9912
Relative Score
A+
-0.043
+0.089
+0.056
  • Overall
  • 181
  • 342
  • $178
Criterion Grade Brier/QuadraticLogarithmicSpherical
At Market Midpoint
D-
0.2291
-0.6493
0.7347
Time-Weighted Average
D-
0.1207
-0.4263
0.8825
30 Days Before Close
C
0.0125
-0.1148
0.9920
7 Days Before Close
C-
0.0169
-0.1387
0.9890

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